MAT 540 Midterm Exam 100% Correct Answers
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Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. 

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A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval. 

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A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously. 

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A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.  
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Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.  
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A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.  
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Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the longterm strategic planning process.
Answer 

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Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns. 

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Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?  
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__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.


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The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.


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Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.  
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In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.  
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Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.  
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A seed value is a(n)  
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__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.


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rob 14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:
The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80. What is the expected yield of the crop?


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In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.


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Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?


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__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.


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__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.


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Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?


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Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.


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__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the longterm strategic planning process.


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A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.



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A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.



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An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.



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An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.
What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.



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Consider the following decision tree.
What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer.



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The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).
If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Note: Please express your answer as a whole number in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000). Round to the nearest whole number, if necessary.



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Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40, 86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.



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The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.



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This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10. 


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Consider the following annual sales data for 20012008.
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal. 


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Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
Year Demand Forecast



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The following sales data are available for 20032008 :
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.



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Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.
Answer 


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Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.  

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The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.



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Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6period time frame:
Compute a 3period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal. Answer 


Mat 540 Midterm Exam Solution Page 2
___________ is a technique for selecting numbers randomly from a probability distribution.
Monte Carlo is a technique for selecting numbers randomly from a probability distribution.
Analogue simulation replaces a physical system with an analogous physical system that is _____________ to manipulate.
Variable costs are independent of volume and remain constant.
Regret is the difference between the payoff from the best decision and all other decision payoffs.
The maximin criterion results in the
A payoff table is a means of organizing a decision situation, including the payoffs from different decisions given the various states of nature.
In a weighted moving average, weights are assigned to most __________ data.
The maximin criterion results in the maximum of the minimum payoffs.
A state of nature is an actual event that may occur in the future.
Which of the following is not an alternative name for management science?
A _________ period of real time is represented by a __________ period of simulated time.
Simulation results will not equal analytical results unless ___________ trials of the simulation have been conducted to reach steady state.
The minimax regret criterion
Objective probabilities that can be stated prior to the occurrence of an event are
Which of the following is incorrect with respect to the use of models in decision making?
The steps of the scientific method are:
A seasonal pattern is an upanddown repetitive movement within a trend occurring periodically.
____________ techniques include uncertainty and assume that there can be more than one model solution.
The maximax criterion results in the maximum of the minimum payoffs.
Regret is the difference between the payoff from the
A long period of real time is represented by a short period of simulated time.
A trend is a gradual, longterm, up or down movement of demand.
____________ use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to make forecasts.
____________ moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do ____________ moving averages.
In computer mathematical simulation a system is replicated with a mathematical model that is analyzed
Which of the following is an equation or an inequality that expresses a resource restriction in a mathematical model?
Analogue simulation replaces a physical system with an analogous physical system that is easier to manipulate.
An experiment is an activity that results in one of several possible outcomes.
Random numbers are equally likely to occur.
An example of forecasting is
The ______________ minimizes the maximum regret.
____________ is an upanddown repetitive movement in demand.
It’s often ____________ to validate that the results of a simulation truly replicate reality.
A short period of real time is represented by a long period of simulated time.
In computer mathematical simulation, a system is replicated with a mathematical model that is analyzed with the computer.
A cycle is an upanddown repetitive movement in demand.
Profit is the difference between total revenue and total cost.
A model is a functional relationship and include: