MAT 540 Midterm Exam 100% Correct Answers

• Question 1

5 out of 5 points

 Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
• Question 2

5 out of 5 points

 A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.
• Question 3

5 out of 5 points

 A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
• Question 4

5 out of 5 points

 A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
• Question 5

5 out of 5 points

 Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.
• Question 6

5 out of 5 points

 A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.
• Question 7

5 out of 5 points

 Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process. Answer
• Question 8

5 out of 5 points

 Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.
• Question 9

0 out of 5 points

 Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?
• Question 10

5 out of 5 points

 __________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.
• Question 11

5 out of 5 points

 The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.
• Question 12

5 out of 5 points

 Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.
• Question 13

5 out of 5 points

 In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.
• Question 14

5 out of 5 points

 Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.
• Question 15

5 out of 5 points

 A seed value is a(n)
• Question 16

5 out of 5 points

 __________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
• Question 17

5 out of 5 points

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14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:

 Yield, bushels per acre Probability 350 .10 400 .18 450 .50 500 .22

The estimated average price per bushel is \$16.80.

What is the expected yield of the crop?

• Question 18

5 out of 5 points

 In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.
• Question 19

5 out of 5 points

 Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
• Question 20

5 out of 5 points

 __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
• Question 21

5 out of 5 points

 __________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.
• Question 22

5 out of 5 points

 Consider the following graph of sales. Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
• Question 23

5 out of 5 points

 Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
• Question 24

5 out of 5 points

 __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
• Question 25

5 out of 5 points

A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

• Question 26

5 out of 5 points

A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

• Question 27

0 out of 5 points

An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities.  Each person is limited to one entry.

The probability of winning at least \$1,000.00 is ________.

• Question 28

5 out of 5 points

An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week.  The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below.  The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.

 xi 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 p(xi) 0.1 0.15 0.18 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.07

What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.

• Question 29

5 out of 5 points

Consider the following decision tree.

What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “\$” in your answer.

• Question 30

0 out of 5 points

The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.  The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = \$50,000).

If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information?  Note:  Please express your answer as a whole number in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = \$50,000).  Round to the nearest whole number, if necessary.

• Question 31

5 out of 5 points

Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40,  86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.

 Demand Random Number Ranges 5 00-14 6 15-44 7 45-69 8 70-84 9 85-99

 Correct Answer Case Sensitivity 7

• Question 32

5 out of 5 points

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.

 Month Actual Demand March 20 April 25 May 40 June 35 July 30 August 45

Use exponential smoothing with α = .2  and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

• Question 33

0 out of 5 points

This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

• Question 34

5 out of 5 points

Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

 Year Sales 2001 2 2002 4 2003 10 2004 8 2005 14 2006 18 2007 17 2008 20

Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

• Question 35

5 out of 5 points

Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

Year    Demand           Forecast

 2001 16 18 2002 20 19 2003 18 24

• Question 36

0 out of 5 points

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :

 Year Sales Forecast 2003 7 9 2004 12 10 2005 14 15 2006 20 22 2007 16 18 2008 25 21

Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

• Question 37

0 out of 5 points

Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

• Question 38

5 out of 5 points

Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

• Question 39

0 out of 5 points

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

 Month Actual Demand March 20 April 25 May 40 June 35 July 30 August 45

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

• Question 40

0 out of 5 points

 Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal. Answer

Mat 540 Midterm Exam Solution Page 2

___________ is a technique for selecting numbers randomly from a probability distribution.

Monte Carlo is a technique for selecting numbers randomly from a probability distribution.
Analogue simulation replaces a physical system with an analogous physical system that is _____________ to manipulate.

Variable costs are independent of volume and remain constant.

Regret is the difference between the payoff from the best decision and all other decision payoffs.
The maximin criterion results in the

A payoff table is a means of organizing a decision situation, including the payoffs from different decisions given the various states of nature.

In a weighted moving average, weights are assigned to most __________ data.

The maximin criterion results in the maximum of the minimum payoffs.

A state of nature is an actual event that may occur in the future.

Which of the following is not an alternative name for management science?

A _________ period of real time is represented by a __________ period of simulated time.

Simulation results will not equal analytical results unless ___________ trials of the simulation have been conducted to reach steady state.

The minimax regret criterion

Objective probabilities that can be stated prior to the occurrence of an event are

Which of the following is incorrect with respect to the use of models in decision making?

The steps of the scientific method are:

A seasonal pattern is an up-and-down repetitive movement within a trend occurring periodically.

____________ techniques include uncertainty and assume that there can be more than one model solution.

The maximax criterion results in the maximum of the minimum payoffs.

Regret is the difference between the payoff from the

A long period of real time is represented by a short period of simulated time.

A trend is a gradual, long-term, up or down movement of demand.

____________ use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to make forecasts.

____________ moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do ____________ moving averages.

In computer mathematical simulation a system is replicated with a mathematical model that is analyzed

Which of the following is an equation or an inequality that expresses a resource restriction in a mathematical model?

Analogue simulation replaces a physical system with an analogous physical system that is easier to manipulate.

An experiment is an activity that results in one of several possible outcomes.

Random numbers are equally likely to occur.

An example of forecasting is

The ______________ minimizes the maximum regret.

____________ is an up-and-down repetitive movement in demand.

It’s often ____________ to validate that the results of a simulation truly replicate reality.

A short period of real time is represented by a long period of simulated time.

In computer mathematical simulation, a system is replicated with a mathematical model that is analyzed with the computer.

A cycle is an up-and-down repetitive movement in demand.

Profit is the difference between total revenue and total cost.

A model is a functional relationship and include: